Auto industry braces for gloomy August 2008 sales results

U.S. and foreign automakers are slated to release their August sales results for the United States later today, and they are expected to be dismal, as droves of consumers continued holding off on purchases of big cars and trucks.

The consumer automotive Web site Edmunds.com previously predicted an industrywide sales decline of 14.4% for the month, compared to the same period a year ago.

“Don’t expect to see a major recovery for the remainder of the year,” Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com, said in a report that predicted the biggest sales declines would be on the backs of Detroit automakers, who have been losing sales all year.

Edmunds.com estimated that August sales would fall by 34% at Chrysler LLC, which has stopped leasing, 27.5% at General Motors Corp. and 16.3% at Ford Motor Co.

The biggest Japanese automaker, Toyota Motor Corp., is expected to post a 7.2% decline. At half the overall market’s expected decline, that would continue Toyota’s U.S. trend this year: losing sales but gaining market share.

Meanwhile, Edmunds.com predicted that Honda Motor Co. would post a small 0.9% improvement, with Nissan Motor Corp. posting a larger 2.3% gain.

Brian Johnson, an automotive analyst with Lehman Brothers, forecasted the industry would deliver a low seasonally adjusted annual selling rate, or SAAR, of 13.1 million vehicles.

The SAAR indicates what sales would total for the whole year if demand remained constant over 12 months, adjusting for seasonal factors. It’s an easy reference to compare how the market is performing month to month.

For the past decade or so, the SAAR usually has ranged between 14 million and 17 million vehicles. Since December 2007, the monthly SAAR has been in decline.

However, a SAAR of 13.1 would represent an increase from July’s 12.6-million SAAR.

The declines are especially noteworthy, Johnson said, because of the “very generous incentive programs” launched by some automakers during the month.

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